Statistical Analysis of Macroeconomic Factors Affecting the Establishment of Micro and Small Enterprises and Their Impact on Tax Revenues in Ukraine and Transcarpathia

Abstract

The competitiveness and success of enterprises depend on many factors, primarily internal managerial capabilities and the impact of external environmental factors. This scientific publication focuses on the study of external macroeconomic factors in Ukraine, particularly in the Transcarpathia region and the Berehove District, located near the Ukrainian-Hungarian border. The study period covers the time from the onset of the global financial crisis (2009) to the present day (2025), when the region is experiencing its deepest crisis due to the Russo-Ukrainian war. In addition to the negative impact of the war, the article also examines the consequences of the financial crisis, the 2014 Eastern Ukraine conflict, the Transcarpathia economic stimulation program "Ede Egan Program" (2016), and the COVID-19 pandemic. Special attention is given to the impact of the early years of the war, analyzed based on statistical data, proprietary local databases, and other analytical sources. The aim of the research is to interpret the impact of external factors on entrepreneurial activity through the indicator of new business openings, as entrepreneurial initiative is one of the key indicators of economic dynamics and the regional economic environment. The results show that external factors, including the global financial crisis and the pandemic, had a significant impact on businesses, especially medium-sized ones, at the national level. At the same time, the war caused a much stronger negative effect, regardless of the size of the enterprise. The study also examines a positive local factor—the Ede Egan economic stimulation program (mainly during the period from 2016 to 2019). Statistical data indicate a growing dynamic among micro and small enterprises during this period, whereas medium and large enterprises, as well as in a broader geographical context, did not show such a positive correlation. The existence and effective financial and economic activity of enterprises are crucial for the formation of budgetary revenues, as income from local businesses enables the state to maintain and develop social functions. This study, with a particular focus on Transcarpathia, contributes to a deeper understanding of the region's economic stability and the level of entrepreneurial activity in the context of crises and war.