Current State and Prospects for the Development of the Ukrainian Sugar Confectionery Market during the War Period

Abstract

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has caused significant changes in the functioning of the sugar confectionery market, driven by the destruction of production and logistics infrastructure, instability in raw material markets, and changes in domestic and external demand. The purpose of the study is to analyse the current state and identify development prospects of the Ukrainian sugar confectionery market during the wartime period, including an assessment of production and sales trends, transformations in foreign trade, and the adaptation mechanisms of industry enterprises. The research is based on official statistical data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, industry reports, and analytical materials for 2021–2025. The study applies methods of economic analysis and synthesis, comparative and structural-dynamic analysis, as well as graphical, tabular, and generalisation methods. The results show that wartime conditions have led to a reduction in the number of enterprises and physical production volumes in certain segments of the confectionery market, while simultaneously increasing production concentration and driving a structural reorientation towards higher value-added products, particularly cakes and confectionery products with added sweeteners. A close relationship has been identified between the state of the raw material base — primarily the sugar and cocoa products markets — and confectionery production dynamics, confirming the industry's vulnerability to external supply shocks. At the same time, changes in foreign trade are accompanied by a gradual reorientation of exports from traditional markets towards EU countries and other external markets, opening new opportunities for increasing product value added. It is concluded that the Ukrainian sugar confectionery market is undergoing adaptive structural transformation, and its further sustainable development requires diversification of the raw material base, targeted support for producers, development of export potential, and systematic consideration of security risks in the process of post-war industry recovery.