A Comparative Analysis of the Payment Services Markets in Ukraine and Hungary in the Context of Contemporary Challenges

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to compare the development of the payment services markets of Ukraine and Hungary in 2020-2025 in the context of digitalisation, pandemic-related restrictions, wartime challenges and changes in consumer financial behaviour. The study focuses on trends in cashless payments and card infrastructure, as well as the institutional regulation of payment systems in the two countries. The research methods include a review and synthesis of scholarly and statistical sources, a comparative analysis of the institutional environment of the two payment systems, a structural and dynamic analysis of cashless transaction indicators, the number of payment cards issued, mobile wallets, and POS terminals. Correlation and regression analysis is also used to assess the statistical relationship between card infrastructure and the share of cashless card transactions in Ukraine. The findings indicate that electronic payments expanded in both countries, although along different trajectories. In Ukraine, this expansion reflected crisis-driven adaptation and supported financial resilience during wartime: the number of payment cards issued increased from 73.4 million to 148.7 million, and cashless card transactions accounted for 95.5% of the total number of card transactions. These developments were accompanied by the modernisation of Ukraine’s System of Electronic Payments (SEP), the implementation of the ISO 20022 standard, and the development of the PROSTIR national payment system. By contrast, digitalisation in Hungary proceeded within a stable EU regulatory environment, with the share of electronic transactions increasing from 27% to 42%. Correlation and regression analysis revealed a statistically significant relationship between the share of contactless cards and the share of cashless card transactions in Ukraine (r = 0.896; p = 0.016). The findings can be applied by central banks, commercial banks and fintech companies in developing strategies for the expansion of cashless payments, and may also be used by researchers for further comparative studies of payment systems in Central and Eastern Europe. The study concludes that the payment systems of Ukraine and Hungary are developing as part of the global trend towards a cashless economy, but differ in their drivers and pace. The Hungarian experience of gradual, institutionally supported digitalisation may provide useful guidance for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine's payment infrastructure.