Conjuncture features of the Ukrainian grain market

Abstract

The cereal industry of the Ukrainian food industry is strategically important and socially significant for the population. In our country, almost all grain crops are grown, from which cereals are produced, so the prospects for the development of the cereal market directly depend on production volumes, crop yields, zoning, availability of grain stocks and other factors. The armed aggression of the russian federation against Ukraine has led to significant changes in the cereal market. The article analyzes the situation on the Ukrainian market of cereal products, in particular production, exports, imports, consumption, geographical location of the market, level of competition, level of development of production and transport infrastructure of the market and the level of state regulation of prices. It is concluded that during 2022 the official production of cereal products decreased almost twice compared to the same indicator of the previous year. During 2022, there was an almost critical situation in the rice segment and its derivative products. Due to russian aggression, rice production in Ukraine decreased almost 16 times. In 2022, there was a significant reduction in exports of Ukrainian cereal products, which reached the lowest level in recent years - the decline was 53.0%. This dynamics is due to a decrease in exports of corn cereals - (by 54.6%), other cereals - by 27.1% and an almost sevenfold decrease in exports of rice and related products. The only commodity item that showed export growth was wheat cereals (by 20.0%). The blocking of the Black Sea ports by the Russian occupiers caused changes in the commodity structure of imports to Ukraine of a large number of goods. Despite the fact that total cereal imports of all categories during 2022 remained almost at the level of the previous year (slight increase of 0.9%), there is a significant increase in foreign exchange costs - by 53.0%, indicating a significant rise in price of this type of grocery product. The total apparent consumption of cereal products in Ukraine following the results of 2022 decreased by 34.6%. At the same time, consumption of wheat cereals fell by 48.1%, other cereals - by 57.5%, and rice and its derivatives - by 28.3%. This dynamics is explained by the active phase of the war on the territory of Ukraine and related factors. At the same time, the level of competition in the Ukrainian domestic market of cereal products is estimated as high, the level of production infrastructure of the market in which the taxpayer operates is estimated as developed. The transport infrastructure serving the taxpayer's activity is assessed as developed.