A Mathematical Model Formalization for Socio-Ecological-Economic Responsibility: Methodology and Stages of Development

Abstract

An integrated mathematical model of socio-ecological-economic responsibility in the field of distributed generation has been developed, which takes into account a complex of key influencing factors, including environmental impact, economic contribution to the development of the national energy system, social interaction, regulatory and legal compliance, the level of monitoring and transparency, with the provision of its adaptation to specific conditions of functioning with significant dependence on stationary sources in crisis situations. Within the framework of the model, the various nature of risks and threats are taken into account, in particular the destruction of infrastructure, dependence on centralized sources of energy and costs of restoration arising as a result of military aggression of the Russian Federation. The use of a model solution allows not only to evaluate the dimensions of socio-ecological and economic responsibility in standard conditions, but also to provide scenario planning and strategic management in the conditions of military operations and post-war reconstruction, as well as to carry out strategizing procedures for the development of distributed generation in critical conditions. The sequence of implementation of seven stages of development and adjustment of the socio-ecological-economic responsibility model in the field of distributed generation in the wartime and post-war period is scientifically substantiated and detailed. The feature of the proposed approach is its multi-level structure, which includes: a) definition of key parameters of responsibility; b) taking into account risks and threats of wartime (in particular, destruction of infrastructure, economic losses and social consequences); c) scenario planning of system restoration processes in the post-war period. Each stage of the development of the model solution, presented with a description of the economic and statistical methods and econometric procedures used, is aimed at the step-by-step adaptation of the distributed generation power system to crises, ensuring its stability in wartime, and preparing for the tasks of post-war reconstruction. This allows you to objectively assess the activity of distributed generation, plan and determine the sequence of implementation of its development strategy in difficult conditions with simultaneous consideration of a wide range of the most influential factors.