Macroeconomic Determinants of Investment Instrument Selection During Wartime Instability

Abstract

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of investment trends among legal entities and individuals in bank deposits, domestic government bonds (OVDP), and military government bonds over the period 2022–2026, focusing on how financial behaviour changed under wartime economic conditions. The subject of the study is the structure and evolution of investment volumes across government and bank-based financial instruments, as well as the factors that shaped investor decision-making. The aim of the research is to identify the saving reallocation patterns between deposits, OVDP, and military OVDP, and to determine the role played by exchange rate fluctuations, yield levels, and tax conditions in shaping the investment choices of different groups of economic agents. The methodological framework of the study includes methods of dynamic and comparative analysis, statistical grouping, and a correlation-based approach used to assess the dependence of investment volumes on changes in exchange rates. To ensure the reliability and representativeness of the findings, the analysis relies on official statistical data from the National Bank of Ukraine and the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. The results of the study indicate that during 2022–2026, a significant reallocation of savings occurred in favour of government securities. While legal entities increasingly shifted towards hryvnia-denominated OVDP, individuals demonstrated a faster rate of investment growth and a higher sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations. Military OVDP emerged as an important instrument for both groups, whereas deposits lost part of their attractiveness due to lower real returns and a higher tax burden. The findings have several practical applications. They may be used in shaping public debt policy, improving mechanisms for attracting investors to the OVDP market, developing more competitive banking products, and supporting further academic research in the fields of financial behaviour and government securities markets. In wartime conditions, government securities became one of the key investment instruments for both businesses and households, while deposits lost part of their appeal due to the availability of higher-yielding and more tax-efficient alternatives. The results advance understanding of the mechanisms driving financial decision-making in crisis conditions and may be used to enhance the effectiveness of public financial policy.