Dynamics of the IT Industry Amid Economic Instability in Ukraine: Analysis and Modeling

Abstract

An effective strategy for the development of Ukraine's economy in today's conditions is impossible without taking into account the dynamics of the information technology industry. Therefore, the work proposes an urgent scientific task of creating a concept of analyzing the dynamics of the IT industry of Ukraine in conditions of economic instability and building econometric models of its assessment, taking into account the internal and external causes of its changes. The research methodology is built on the principles of integrating the system approach and autoregressive modeling of dynamics. According to the system approach, an analysis of the influence of the previous state of the IT industry of Ukraine and the economy as a whole on its dynamics was carried out. To assess the dynamics for the period from 2017 to 2023, two statistical datasets were studied: the volume of implemented IT products and services (information and telecommunications) and the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine. As a result of correlation-regression and dispersion analyzes of the dependence of the volume of realized IT products and services of Ukraine on the volume of the previous period, the impact of GDP on the volume of realized IT products and services of Ukraine, the influence of GDP and the volume of realized IT products and services of Ukraine from the previous period on the current one was established tight linear relationship in each case. Appropriate econometric models of dynamics were built on the basis of calculations carried out using the MS Excel software application "Data Analysis". The statistical significance of the parameters of the models was checked according to the Student's test. The quality and adequacy of the models was confirmed by Fisher's test. Modeling the dynamics of the IT industry of Ukraine for the period from 2017 to 2023 showed that in the short term, the economic instability of Ukraine affects the dynamics of the IT industry to a lesser extent than the state of the industry itself, which explains the stability of its functioning in the conditions of the covid pandemic and war. The work improved the methodology for evaluating the dynamics of the IT industry of Ukraine in conditions of economic instability based on the application of economic cybernetics methods, namely, the integration of a system approach, methods of econometric modeling of dynamics and the use of the MS Excel "Data Analysis" application. As a result, the analysis and assessment of the dynamics of the IT industry of Ukraine in conditions of economic instability, based on the indicators: the volume of implemented IT products and services for the current and previous periods and the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine, gained further development. The obtained results of the analysis and the built models form a strong methodological basis for modeling and evaluating the dynamics of the IT industry of Ukraine in conditions of economic instability.