Statistical Analysis of the Relationship of Tax Revenues and the Budget in Ukraine During the State of War

Abstract

Effective filling of the revenue part of the state budget is a key element of the performance of such functions of the state as social protection, defense, education and health care. The purpose of the study is to determine the role and significance of tax revenues as an important component of the budget of Ukraine to ensure the implementation of tax policy during the period of martial law. The topic of tax revenues during martial law is extremely relevant, as the burden on state finances increases, which requires special attention to the rationality of tax revenue policy. The analysis of tax revenues for 2016–2023 made it possible to assess the dynamics of changes in the structure of revenues of the state budget of Ukraine, to determine the main sources of tax revenues and their impact on the financial stability of the state. It was emphasized that tax revenues, like the revenue part of the budget as a whole, are closely related to the size of the gross domestic product (GDP). Growth rates of GDP and tax revenues for 2016-2023 have been determined. Problems that prevent obtaining a sufficient level of tax revenues are highlighted. This study is important for understanding how changes in tax policy affect the state's ability to meet its obligations to society. The following scientific methods were used in the research process: economic and statistical - to determine the dynamics of tax revenues, identify trends and changes in their structure; analysis and synthesis - to identify the main factors affecting the change in the amount of tax revenues in order to understand the cause-and-effect relationships in the budget and tax sphere; abstract-logical – for theoretical generalizations and conclusions based on the obtained data. An effective budget and tax policy should combine the stimulation of economic growth and the provision of stable revenues to the budget. This can be achieved by introducing stimulating tax regimes, supporting small and medium-sized businesses, investing in infrastructure and innovation. In general, substantiating the need to study the volume and structure of tax revenues is key, as it allows the state to more effectively plan budget expenditures, respond to economic challenges and ensure stability in difficult conditions, in particular during martial law.