Financial Stability of Ukraine During the War: the Interaction of Macroprudential Measures and External Financial Support

Abstract

The article examines the key aspects of ensuring financial stability of Ukraine in the conditions of a full-scale war, with a special emphasis on the relationship between internal macroprudential policy and external financial support. It is noted that current challenges for the financial system are unprecedented and include large-scale destabilization of the foreign exchange market, increased inflationary pressure, increased solvency risks in the banking sector, chronic state budget deficits, and significant restrictions on access to market sources of financing. It was found that an effective response to these threats required a coordinated, rapid, and flexible policy from the National Bank of Ukraine, the government, and international partners.

The results of the study show that the macroprudential policy of the NBU in 2022-2025 was based on the principles of flexible adaptation to the conditions of the war economy, with a focus on stabilizing the foreign exchange market, ensuring the liquidity of the banking system, curbing inflationary processes, etc.At the same time, the government's fiscal policy was aimed at attracting large-scale external support to cover the budget deficit, making social payments, financing defense needs and importing critical goods. The effectiveness of the implementation of these approaches was largely determined by close cooperation with international financial institutions, in particular the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the European Union, and the governments of partner countries.

It was emphasized that external financial aid played not only the role of a source of liquidity, but also served as a key factor in strengthening confidence in the macroeconomic policy of Ukraine. The regularity of financial inflows under programs with the IMF and other donors has become an important compensator for the internal resource deficit, allowing the NBU to avoid using the emission mechanism. At the same time, monetary policy maintained a strict character even in wartime conditions, which contributed to the stabilization of inflationary expectations and the prevention of hyperinflationary threats.

It is substantiated that the financial stability of Ukraine in the context of armed aggression was the result of synergy between the effective application of macroprudential instruments and systemic external financial support. Such interaction made it possible to prevent destructive scenarios, minimize systemic risks and ensure relative macroeconomic balance in the conditions of a deep economic and security crisis. In the medium-term perspective, one of the key tasks will be a gradual transition from external dependence to internal financial stability. This will require maintaining a high level of strategic coordination between Ukraine's economic policy bodies and international partners on the basis of trust, transparency and a common vision of the goals of post-war development - the formation of a modernized, sustainable and competitive economy.